Twin Cities Home Prices Have Dropped $18,000 Since June. The Real Number Is Probably Bigger.
Is it cheaper to buy a house in the Twin Cities now than it was this summer?
The median single-family home in the 7-county metro sold for $445,000 in June and $427,000 in September. That is $18,000 less, and prices usually keep falling into winter.
Everyone is watching the rate. Watch the price.
Mortgage rates hit 7.28% on October 1 (SOURCE). That is the headline, and it sent a lot of buyers to the sidelines.
What almost nobody is talking about is that prices have been dropping the whole time.
These numbers are for existing single-family homes across the 7-county metro. No condos, no townhomes, no new construction. Just the typical house. If you're curious about townhomes and condos we can help you run the numbers on those as well.
June 2026: $445,000
September 2026: $427,000
That is a 4% drop in three months. On a 20% down payment, it is $3,600 less cash you need to bring.
The number is already out of date
This is the part most buyers never hear.
A sale counted in September is a home that closed in September. The buyer and seller agreed on that price weeks earlier, in late July or August.
So the September number is really a summer number.
Rates were under 7% when those deals were made. The jump to 7.28% came after. None of that is in the data yet.
The buyers writing offers this week are negotiating in a slower market, at a higher rate, against fewer other buyers. Those prices will not show up until November and December. The real number today is very likely lower than $427,000.
This happens every winter
Minnesota is a seasonal market. Prices peak in early summer and slide until February or March. Every year.
Last cycle the same single-family median went from roughly $444,000 at the summer peak to about $395,000 in January. That is a drop of around 11%.
We are only 4% into this year's slide, and the coldest months are still ahead.
One honest note. A falling median does not mean every house is marked down by that amount. Part of it is which homes sell in winter. But sellers who list in November and December are the ones who need to move, and that shows up in what they will accept.
What that does to your payment
Rates do matter. Here is the math, using 20% down and principal and interest only.
At the September price, the payment is $47 a month higher than buying at the peak with summer's rate. Not lower. But very close.
At about $418,000, the payment is the same. That is only $9,000 below a number we already know is behind.
If this winter looks like last winter, the payment drops to around $2,162. That is $128 a month less than the summer buyer is paying, with $10,000 less down.
No one can promise prices follow the same path. Your own rate depends on your credit, loan type and down payment, and these figures leave out taxes and insurance.
And you can negotiate again
Price is only one lever. Statewide, inventory is at a seven-year high (SOURCE), according to Minnesota Realtors.
That means offers under list price are getting accepted. It means asking the seller to pay your closing costs is a normal request. It means you get a second home tour, a full inspection, and time to think.
None of that was on the table in May.
The rule
Buy on a payment that works for you today, at today's rate. If the number is comfortable, it is a good purchase. If it isn't, adjust the price range.
That is why getting pre-approved for a mortgage comes first. You know your monthly payment before you fall for a house.
Common questions
Do home prices drop in the winter in Minnesota?
Sale prices are recorded when a home closes, which is usually 30 to 60 days after the offer was accepted. September's numbers reflect deals made in late July and August.
Will a seller pay my closing costs?
Many will right now. It is negotiated as part of your offer, and your loan type limits how much a seller can contribute. According to our local sources in the Twin Cities, sellers are contributing to buyers closing cost 34% of the time right now.
Want to see your own numbers?
Send us a message with your price range. We'll show you the payment, the cash to close, and what sellers across the Twin Cities are agreeing to right now.
*Price data: NorthstarMLS via InfoSparks. Existing single-family homes, traditional sales, 7-county Minneapolis-St. Paul metro.*
