Is the Twin Cities housing market slowing down in November 2026?

Partly. Sales are down and homes take longer to sell, but the median Twin Cities sale price is still up 1.3% from a year ago at $395,000, and inventory is up 11% according to Minneapolis Area Realtors. Rates sit at 7.18%.

The national headlines this week say home prices are declining and pending sales just hit a record low. That is the United States as a whole. It is not the metro you live in.

We work the whole Twin Cities, from Minneapolis and St. Paul out through the suburbs, and the local numbers tell a more useful story. More homes to choose from. Slower sales. Prices that are flat to slightly up. A rate that finally moved down a little.

What the national headlines are saying

Redfin's November 5 update put the national median sale price at $388,604, down 0.4% from a year ago, the third straight weekly decline. Pending sales were down 16.4%, the lowest in Redfin's records. The typical monthly payment landed at $2,777, up 11.1%.

HousingWire made the point a day earlier that national demand may be stabilizing while Phoenix, Houston, and Tampa each do their own thing. Metro markets do not move together. So the question is what the Twin Cities market is doing.

What the Twin Cities numbers actually say

The latest monthly report from Minneapolis Area Realtors, built on NorthstarMLS data, covers September 2026. The October report is due mid-month. Four numbers matter most.

Prices are holding

The median sales price across the metro was $395,000 in September, up 1.3% from $390,000 a year earlier. That is not a boom. It is also not the price decline the national headlines describe. Twin Cities sellers are getting 97.7% of their original list price on average, down from 98.4% a year ago, so the gap between asking and closing has opened a bit.

Inventory is up double digits

There were 12,411 homes for sale across the metro in September, up 11.2% from a year ago. Months supply reached 3.2, up from 2.9. The more recent weekly report from Minneapolis Area Realtors for the week ending October 24 put inventory at 12,616, up 13.2%.

Under four months of supply still tilts toward sellers by the old rule of thumb. But buyers have more selection than they have had in years, and it keeps growing.

Homes take longer to sell

Days on market averaged 48 in September, up from 44 a year ago. Statewide, the Minnesota Realtors September report put days on market at 56.

Buyers are pausing

Pending sales in the metro were down 11.7% year over year in September, at 3,541. The week ending October 24 was weaker, with pending sales down 19.2%. New listings that week were also down 7.7%, which is normal as the metro heads into winter.

Where rates sit right now

Freddie Mac's survey released November 5 put the 30-year fixed at 7.18%, down from 7.24% the week before and the third straight weekly decline. A year ago it was 6.22%. The 15-year fixed came in at 6.57%.

The math on a median Twin Cities home. On a $395,000 purchase with 10% down, principal and interest at 7.18% is about $2,408 a month. At last year's 6.22% it would have been about $2,182. That is roughly $226 a month more, before taxes, insurance, and any HOA.

That number is the whole conversation. Not the rate. The payment.

What this means if you are buying in the Twin Cities

Rate is the excuse. Payment is the decision. Get pre-approved for a mortgage before you tour a single home, so you know the monthly number and you are comfortable with it at today's rate... not at a rate you hope shows up later.

If the payment works, this is a better buying window than last winter. There are more homes on the market, they are sitting longer, and sellers are accepting a little less than they ask. That is leverage you did not have a year ago.

Use it on terms, not just price. Ask for a rate buydown instead of a price cut. A seller credit toward closing costs often lowers your payment more than the same dollars off the price. Ask for the inspection window and closing date you need.

And look across the metro. Minneapolis, St. Paul, and the suburbs in every direction are all on NorthstarMLS and they are not all behaving the same. The SPAAR market report shows St. Paul's year-to-date median at $300,000, down 1.6%, with homes for sale up 12.9%. Some submarkets are softer than the metro number. Some are tighter.

What this means if you are selling in the Twin Cities

Buyers have 12,000-plus homes to compare yours against and they are taking 48 days to decide. Three things matter.

Price to the comps from the last 60 days, not the last two years. Sellers are closing at 97.7% of original list on average, and that average includes the homes that priced right and the ones that chased the market down with cuts. Starting right costs less than correcting.

Make the first two weeks count. Clean, lit, staged, photographed well, and priced where it belongs on day one. A home that stalls past 30 days needs a reason, and the reason is almost always price or condition.

Budget for concessions. A rate buydown or closing cost credit is now a normal part of a Twin Cities deal. It is often cheaper than a price reduction, and it gets the buyer to a payment that works.

Winter is not a bad time to list. Fewer new listings between now and February means less competition, and the buyers still touring homes in January are serious.

The short version

The Twin Cities is not in the national headline. Prices are flat to slightly up. Inventory is up double digits. Days on market are longer. Rates eased to 7.18%. It is a slower, more balanced market, and that works for both sides if you run the numbers first.

Frequently asked questions

Are home prices dropping in the Twin Cities?

Not as of the latest data. The metro median sales price was $395,000 in September 2026, up 1.3% from a year earlier, according to Minneapolis Area Realtors. Sellers are accepting a bit less of their asking price than they did last year, but closed prices are still above 2025.

Is it a buyer's market in Minneapolis and St. Paul right now?

It is closer to balanced than it has been in years. Months supply is 3.2, up from 2.9 a year ago, and inventory is up more than 11%. Under four months still favors sellers by the traditional measure, but buyers have more selection and more negotiating room than a year ago.

How long does it take to sell a house in the Twin Cities?

The metro average was 48 days on market in September 2026, up from 44 a year ago. Statewide it was 56 days. Well-priced homes still move faster than the average, and homes that start high tend to sit past the average.

What are mortgage rates in Minnesota right now?

Freddie Mac's national survey for the week of November 5, 2026 put the 30-year fixed at 7.18% and the 15-year at 6.57%. Minnesota rates track the national survey closely. Your actual rate depends on your credit, down payment, and loan type, which is why getting pre-approved for a mortgage matters more than the headline number.

Should I wait for rates to drop before buying in the Twin Cities?

Only if the payment does not work today. A home bought at a payment you are comfortable with at 7.18% is a sound purchase regardless of what rates do next. A home bought on the hope of a lower rate later is a bet. Run the payment at today's rate and decide from there.

Not sure what this means for your situation

Every one of these numbers is a metro average, and nobody buys or sells the average. If you want to know what the market looks like for your price range, your suburb, or your specific house, message us and we'll think it through. No pitch, just the numbers.

GDP Homes serves buyers and sellers across the Twin Cities metro, including Minneapolis, St. Paul, and the surrounding suburbs.