Is the Twin Cities a buyer's market in November 2026?
Not quite, but it is the most balanced the metro has been in years. Inventory is up 11.2% from last year, months supply sits at 3.2, and the average home takes 48 days to sell, according to Minneapolis Area Realtors.
The national headlines this week were rough. U.S. existing-home sales in October fell to their lowest pace since 2010. Redfin says the national median sale price dropped year over year for the first time in three years. Mortgage rates spent most of October above 7%.
So the question we keep getting is simple. Does that mean the Twin Cities flipped to a buyer's market?
Short answer: no. Longer answer: buyers have more room than they have had since before the pandemic, and sellers who price like it is 2021 are the ones sitting. Here is what the local numbers say, and what to do with them whether you are buying or selling across Minneapolis, St. Paul, or the suburbs.
What "buyer's market" actually means
The usual yardstick is months supply. That is how long it would take to sell every home on the market at the current sales pace. Under four months is usually called a seller's market. Four to six is balanced. Over six leans toward buyers.
Those cutoffs are national rules of thumb. The Twin Cities has run tighter than that for years, so 3.2 months here feels very different than the frantic stretches of 2021 and 2022.
The Twin Cities numbers right now
Here is the latest full month of metro data, September 2026, from the Minneapolis Area Realtors Monthly Indicators report, which covers the 16-county metro:
Closed sales: 4,049, down 3.1% from September 2025
Pending sales: 3,541, down 11.7%
Homes for sale: 12,411, up 11.2%
Months supply: 3.2, up from 2.9
Median sales price: $395,000, up 1.3%
Average days on market: 48, up from 44
Percent of original list price received: 97.7%, down from 98.4%
Read those together. More homes to choose from. Fewer buyers writing offers. Homes taking longer to sell and closing a little further below asking. And yet the median price still crept up.
That is not a crash. It is a market where the leverage moved a few steps toward the buyer without prices giving way.
The weekly data since then points the same direction. For the week ending October 31, Minneapolis Area Realtors reported new listings down 13.9%, pending sales down 14.6%, and inventory up 12.8% compared with the same week a year earlier. Both sides are pulling back at the same time. Sellers are listing less, and buyers are buying less.
Home tour activity tells the same story. The association's Weekly Pulse for November 9 showed tours down 13.7% from a year ago, with homes priced between $300,000 and $400,000 still the biggest slice of the traffic at 29.5%. That price band is where the Twin Cities market lives, and it is still moving.
Why the market cooled this fall
Rates. Minneapolis Area Realtors said it plainly in their September update: the market lost momentum once mortgage rates pushed past 7% for the first time since January 2025.
There is some relief this week. Freddie Mac reported the average 30-year fixed at 7.11% on November 12, the fourth straight weekly decline and the lowest in seven weeks. A year ago it was 6.24%.
We will say this every time. The rate is not the decision. The payment is. If the monthly number works for you at 7.11%, you can buy today with confidence. If it only works at 6%, you are not ready yet, and no amount of "it will come down" talk should push you in. Our buyers get pre-approved for a mortgage first, so they know their payment before they fall for a house.
What this means if you are buying in the Twin Cities
You have time and you have options. Both of those were missing for most of the last five years.
With 48 days on market and homes closing at 97.7% of original list, there is room to negotiate. That might be price. It might be a seller credit toward closing costs. It might be the seller paying to buy your rate down for the life of the loan, which often does more for your payment than the same dollars off the price.
Ask for an inspection. Ask for the repairs that matter. On a home that has been sitting a month or more, that is a normal conversation now.
The one thing we would not do is wait for spring because you expect rates to drop. If rates fall meaningfully, the buyers who stepped out this fall step back in, and the 3.2 months of supply you are enjoying shrinks fast. Winter in the Twin Cities is quiet. Quiet is good for the buyer who is ready.
What this means if you are selling in the Twin Cities
Price it right the first time. That is the whole game right now.
The median home still sold for more than it did last year, so this is not a market where you have to give your house away. But the 2.3% gap between original list price and final sale price tells you what happens when a home comes on high. It sits, it cuts, and it sells for less than it would have if it had been priced correctly on day one.
Expect buyers to ask for things. Closing cost help, a rate buydown, a repair list. Build that into your plan instead of being surprised by it. A seller who budgets for a concession and prices accurately usually nets more than the one who lists high and refuses to move.
If you are also buying, this is one of the better setups in years. You may give up a little on the sale, but you will get it back on the purchase, and you can actually find a house to buy.
Where the metro goes from here
National data points to a slow winter. October sales nationally hit a 16-year low, and the NAR seasonality numbers show November typically brings about a 10% drop in sales from October, even in a normal year.
The Twin Cities will follow that pattern. Expect fewer new listings through the holidays, a quieter home tour calendar, and more negotiating on the homes that are listed. Then watch January. If rates hold near 7% or slide a little, pent-up buyers come out early, and the window of leverage starts to close.
Frequently asked questions
Is now a good time to buy a house in the Twin Cities?
If your payment works at today's rate, yes. Inventory is up 11.2% from last year, homes are taking 48 days to sell, and buyers are getting concessions they could not get in 2021 or 2022. The question is your monthly number, not the headlines.
Are home prices dropping in Minneapolis and St. Paul?
Not as of the latest data. The metro median sales price was $395,000 in September 2026, up 1.3% from a year earlier, according to Minneapolis Area Realtors. Prices are flat to slightly up, while the time to sell is getting longer.
Should I sell my house now or wait until spring in Minnesota?
It depends on your next move. Winter sellers face less competition from other listings, and the buyers who tour in January tend to be serious. Spring brings more buyers but also more listings. If you need to buy too, the current balance works in your favor on both ends.
What is the months supply of homes in the Twin Cities?
3.2 months as of September 2026, up from 2.9 a year earlier. That is still below the four to six month range usually called balanced, but it is the most room buyers have had in the metro in several years.
Thinking about a move this winter?
A buyer in St. Paul with a solid payment and a seller in the western suburbs with a 2021 price in their head need very different advice. Message us and we will think it through with you, no pressure either way.
GDP Homes works with buyers and sellers across the full Twin Cities metro.
